The metrics love West Virginia and there has been a lot of sharp money coming in on them as well despite having to travel to Arizona to play Arizona State, 20 minutes away from their campus. West Virginia however enters with arguably the best defense that Arizona State has played all year and they do so without their offensive coordinator Mike Norvell who will be missed in this game. West Virginia held many teams on their schedule to their season lows in points including - Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Maryland, and Georgia Southern. This is a defense that can stop the pass and the run and will for Mike Berchovici to beat them, and I don't think it's possible.
West Virginia has allowed an 86 QB rating in wins, and a 144 in losses. Berchovici is clearly the key here, but I'm betting West Virginia will force him into some mistakes. West Virginia is +11 in TO margin and forced 31 on the season. Arizona State can't win this game if it turns defensive as they are 1-4 when being held under 30 points. Offensively West Virginia will have some issues dealing with the Arizona State's front 7 which loves to sell out on the blitz, but it really hasn't helped them as they have allowed over 30 points on average. Their pass defense is pretty bad and with over a month to prepare I'm betting the offensive guru Dana Holgorsen can figure out a few different ways to attack through the air despite liking to run the ball more this year. At the end of the day West Virginia is the more balanced team, and I think the line at -2 is really suggesting so when you consider the oddsmakers loved the PAC 12 and it's evident in some of the lines they have released but in this game it's the opposite with two comparable teams playing. I also think it's interesting that West Virginia is a favorite here in what most people are calling a home game for Arizona State. It just doesn't all add up and for that reason I like West Virginia more.
